Saturday, November 6, 2010

All quite on the T20YM Front.

Sorry for the delay in posting, it’s been a quite couple weeks on the trading side. I have been licking my wounds after the Google debacle. That error took a considerable bite out of my trading capital. I have been making small moves here and there and have had some success. I have not initiated any new long term positions since I last updated the portfolio. I am personally finding it difficult buying at the current levels, but I have been saying this for 100 points on the S&P. Sooner or later I will have to stop being so stubborn. I guess there are no called strikes in investing.

Since I have nothing profound to write, I guess I’ll list some take away s from the last two weeks:

  •        I hate the VXX. Anytime I have used the VXX to hedge an investment it steals my money. I feel like I am donating to the stupid tax when I open a position. It does a terrible job at mirroring the VIX in general. If I am worried about volatility, I am either going to outright short the market or do nothing. I will not buy this again, I’m better off spending the money on scotch.
  •           QE2 is here and I am not fighting it. I am not saying people should push all in on equities but you should increase your exposure. The U.S. dollar is losing value faster than Cavaliers after Lebron. The easy trade is long commodities (gold, oil, ag), short long term bonds (TLT puts, TBT), and play the high growth names (CMG, AAPL, NTAP, etc). I want to be clear, I don’t agree with quantitative easing, and I don’t think this ends well.  
  •           Elections are over and the red tide cometh. I’m pretty sure we will see Bush era tax cuts extended for all. Additionally, I think we will see the capital gains and div tax extended. This is a positive for the market. Let’s hope the Republicans keep their promise and try to reign in spending. We need to get our fiscal house in order.
  •           I have a few small option plays on NTAP Nov 55 Calls. Looking for direction Monday or Tuesday. I also have a spec play on Nov BP 44 calls. Word came in late Friday of a potential bid for the company by XOM. We will see how they play out.
  •           I am going to increase my commodity exposure with either REMX or GLTR.
  • Can you believe the Giants won the World Series? are we in bizzaro world? Some crazy Giants fan made a boat load on that bet. 
It’s been a crazy week at work and school. Look for me to be more active after midterms.
Good luck to all,


  1. C,
    Just some comments: I short the market using puts on DIA -- easy and works well. TBT is based on the day's performance and can skin you alive and not reflect the general trend since it in effect resets each day (this is misunderstood). What, no GLD options in the mix? If you haven't invested in it already try Glengoyne 17 yr old Scotch. What's your position on Apple option these days?

  2. Quite honestly I think 50% in Jan. 620 GOOG calls and 50% in AAPL Jan. 310 calls. Turn the computer off and forget about it. When you try and time it and watch it not only is it a waste of time but you do irrational things.

  3. Play the straight out VIX or VXZ not the VXX! my 0.02.