Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Apple, the most manipulated stock in the market.

16 March 11 Credit Suise initiates Apple to outperform. Target $500
11-Jan-11 Wells Fargo raised its FY11 EPS estimate to 19.33 from 18.24, and raised its FY12 EPS estimate to 22.89 from 22.42. Maintains an outperform rating on the stock.
11-Jan-11 Jefferies raises Apple target from $365 to $450.
05-Jan-11 Wedbush Securities stats Apple at outperform and $405 target.
04-Jan-11 added to short term buy list with $410 target at Deutsche Bank.
03-Jan-11 International Strategy and Investment Group raises target to $400
03-Jan-11 Oppenheimer raises target to $385
17-Dec-10 Trefis revises target from $400 to $418.
17-Dec-10 Gabelli initiates coverage at Buy with $450 target.
16-Dec-10 JP Morgan Chase raises price target to $420.
16-Dec-10 Kaufman Bros. raises price target to $395.
15-Dec-10 Piper Jaffray raises price target to $438.
14-Dec-10 BMO Capital raises price target from $330 to $355.
14-Dec-10 Morgan Stanley removes Apple from "Best Ideas" list, but maintained overweight rating and "Top Pick".
13-Dec-10 Goldman Sachs ups target price to $430.
10-Dec-10 Beyond Trading downgrades Apple from Strong Buy to Buy - not sure if BT is legitimate source??
09-Dec-10 BofA Merrill rates as buy raises to $420
08-Dec-10 Barclays Capital Analyst Ben Reitzes: Mac unit sales will surge 16% for the quarter ending in December, compared to the same period a year-ago
08-Dec-10 Stifel Nicolaus upgrade $390
04-Dec-10 Ebeling Heffernan Upgrade $400
03-Dec-10 Caris & Co. Upgrade $400
11-Nov-10 Trefis Upgrade $400 / $500
04-Nov-10 Robert W. Baird Initiated Outperform $410
03-Nov-10 Morgan Stanley "bull scenario" August 2011 target = $500
19-Oct-10 Argus Reiterated Buy $375
19-Oct-10 UBS Reiterate Buy $365
19-Oct-10 Canaccord Genuity Reiterated Buy $421
19-Oct-10 ISI Group Reiterated Buy $370
19-Oct-10 Kaufman Bros Reiterated Buy $380
15-Oct-10 Hudson Square Upgrade $500
12-Oct-10 Barclays Capital Reiterated Overweight $385
08-Oct-10 Oppenheimer Reiterated Outperform $345
05-Oct-10 Jefferies Initiated Buy $365
04-Oct-10 Ticonderoga Initiated Buy $430

Who the hell cares about JMP and his BS downgrade?

Fundamentals are unbelievable The Best Stock on Sale

Monday, March 14, 2011

Stock Analysis ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) Current Yield 2.2%

ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) Current Yield 2.2%

Exxon Mobil Corporation was incorporated in the State of New Jersey in 1882. Divisions and affiliated companies of ExxonMobil operate or market products in the United States and most other countries of the world. Their principal business is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacture of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. ExxonMobil is a major manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics and a wide variety of specialty products. ExxonMobil also has interests in electric power generation facilities. Affiliates of ExxonMobil conduct extensive research programs in support of these businesses.

Exxon Mobil is not only the largest Major Integrated Oil & Gas Company, it is the largest publically traded company in America.  It’s a low beta, safe investment. Because of its sheer size it has become increasingly more and more difficult for the management team to move the earnings needle. Nonetheless, the fundamentals of Exxon Mobil are superb:

ExxonMobil is part of the elite Dividend Champion list, increasing its dividend payments for 28 straight years. The yield of 2.2% is low, but with a payout ratio of 25.6% there is considerable room for growth. It has kept is Dividend Growth Rate steady at 8.7% for the last 7 years. The ROE and SGR numbers are well above average and best in breed. It has the best balance sheet of the group. It is currently trading at a premium to its historic P/E ratio.

Modeling ExxonMobil 10 year return using its EPS growth rate we arrive at a slightly above average return:

If you are looking for a safe and stable oil play ExxonMobil might be your best bet. Furthermore, with ExxonMobil improving fundamentals the market should soon begin to recognize these achievements. 

All the best,


Saturday, March 12, 2011

Best in Breed Dividend Stocks: The Chase for Yield (Part 4)

Today we are going to stray from the sector theme and address a question that has been raised by many readers:

Where’s the yield?

As I have stated in previous articles, I'm a dividend growth investor, not a yield chaser. I believe in investing in undervalued companies, with moderate dividend yields, good dividend growth rates, low payout ratios and long-term sustainable business models. For younger investors, a disciplined dividend growth Investing plan is a sure fire path to financial freedom.

That being said, there is something attractive about stocks with substantial dividend yields. The idea of gaining 6-14% annually on a stagnant investment is hard to pass up. The problem with these investments is yields as lofty as these are rarely sustainable. When the dividend goes, so does the multiple the market has placed on the stock. Most of the time, the dividends you’ve accumulated on these high yielders will pale in comparison to the stocks decline when the dividend is compromised.

Still, there is a place in a well diversified dividend portfolio for the companies with abnormally high yields. These high yielders help smooth out the yield curve of a portfolio and push it above the 3% minimum yield I use as my benchmark. This allows us to take on companies with smaller yields and high growth rates, while keeping the income flowing.

Before we get to the picks, I am going to forewarn you that many of the metrics you are accustomed to reading about in my articles, such as Return on Equity, Sustainable Growth, EPS Growth Rate, and Dividend Payout Ratio have little, or nothing to do with the companies we will discuss. This is part of the reason I don’t usually invest in these companies. I don’t invest in equities I can’t accurately value. Master Limited Partnerships, Real Estate Investment Trusts, ETFs, and the like, play by their own rules.

Read the rest of the article here

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

The Best Integrated Oil Company You Don't Know About: CNOOC

China National Offshore Oil Corporation, CNOOC (CEO)

(This is an older valuation I did for Seeking Alpha)

Today I would like to discuss one of the cheapest and most dominant energy companies in the world, CNOOC. Despite the lofty share price (hovering around 210 per share), the recent pullback in the stock has provided a decent entry point for the long-term investor.

What it Does:

CNOOC Limited, incorporated on August 20, 1999, is an investment holding company. The company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the exploration, development, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas and other petroleum products. It is a producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas. It has four production areas in offshore China, which are Bohai Bay, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea. In addition, the company is also an offshore crude oil producer in Indonesia. The company also has upstream assets in Nigeria, Australia and some other countries. As of December 31, 2009, the company owned net proved reserves of approximately 2.66 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), and its average daily net production was 623,896 BOE. Its subsidiaries include CNOOC China Limited, CNOOC International Limited, China Offshore Oil (Singapore) International Pte Ltd, CNOOC Finance (2002) Limited and CNOOC Finance (2003) Limited (per Reuters).

Read the full valuation at Seeking Alpha